The 5 Biggest Housing Market Insights From John Burns Real Estate Consulting: 2025-2026 Forecasts Revealed
The US housing market is currently at a critical inflection point, moving from a period of rapid, nationwide appreciation to a complex landscape defined by regional divergence and stabilizing demand. As of December 19, 2025, the latest analysis from John Burns Real Estate Consulting (JBRC) reveals that while national home price growth is expected to decelerate, the true story lies in specific metro areas and the influence of supply dynamics, providing essential clarity for investors, homebuilders, and policymakers navigating the 2026 outlook.
The firm, a leading independent research and consulting service for the US housing industry, has pinpointed key trends—from the cooling of resale prices in over a third of the country to the anticipated drop in mortgage rates—that are essential for anyone planning their business strategy over the next four years.
John Burns: Founder and Real Estate Visionary Profile
John Burns Research and Consulting (JBRC) was founded on December 28, 2001, and quickly established itself as a premier source for data-driven insights in the residential real estate sector. The company's success is rooted in the extensive career and analytical rigor of its founder, John Burns.
- Full Name: John Burns
- Company Founded: John Burns Real Estate Consulting (JBREC), December 28, 2001
- Role: Founder and CEO
- Education: Business School at the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA)
- Early Career: Began his career as a consultant at KPMG, where he gained foundational business and analytical expertise.
- Industry Entry: Burns describes his entry into the real estate industry as an "accident," transitioning from general consulting to becoming a dedicated housing market expert.
- Recognition: JBREC has been recognized as an Inc. 5000 honoree.
The 5 Critical Housing Market Insights from JBREC (2025-2026)
John Burns Real Estate Consulting’s most recent analysis, encompassing Q2 and Q3 2025 recaps and the 2026 outlook, highlights a nuanced market that defies simple narratives. The following five points represent the most critical takeaways for industry stakeholders.
1. National Home Price Growth is Decelerating but Still Positive
The era of double-digit national home price growth has largely concluded. JBRC’s consensus forecast indicates a significant deceleration, but not a collapse. The latest projections suggest that national home price growth will moderate to 3.8% in 2025 and further to 3.6% in 2026.
This slowdown is a healthy sign of market stabilization and is driven by several factors, including elevated interest rates, which have reduced purchasing power, and a gradual increase in inventory. While the pace is slowing, the continued positive growth underscores the fundamental strength of housing demand, particularly from demographic shifts and household formation.
2. Resale Home Prices are Declining in Over One-Third of US Markets
A key finding illustrating the market's complexity is the significant regional divergence. JBRC data shows that resale home prices are now declining in more than one-third (35%) of major US metro areas.
This trend is particularly evident in some previously overheated regions, including certain Sunbelt markets, where agent optimism has been less enthusiastic compared to other areas. The cooling of prices in these regions is a direct consequence of large construction volumes and increased inventory, suggesting that local supply dynamics—not just national economic headwinds—are the primary movers of home price movements right now.
3. The 2026 Outlook is a 'Reset,' Not a 'Rebound,' Fueled by Lower Rates
Looking ahead to 2026, JBRC and other leading economists anticipate a "reset" for the housing market, rather than a sharp "rebound." This reset is heavily predicated on the future trajectory of mortgage rates. The expectation is that mortgage rates will continue to drop throughout 2026.
Lower interest rates will improve housing affordability, bringing previously "shut out" buyers back into the market and leading to a more balanced, sustainable cycle. However, the market will not immediately surge back to the frenzy of past years, as economic uncertainty and local regulatory burdens remain headwinds.
4. Supply Dynamics are the Current Market Catalyst
According to JBRC's Q3 2025 recap, the main factor currently moving the housing market is supply. The interplay between existing home inventory (resale housing market) and new home sales is determining where prices cool and where they remain resilient.
The consulting firm’s focus on master-planned community forecasts and new home sales highlights the growing importance of homebuilders in meeting demand, especially as existing homeowners remain locked in by low mortgage rates. The white paper on how rising inventory is reshaping housing underscores this shift, emphasizing that markets with stabilizing demand and recovering prices are often those that have delivered large construction volumes.
5. Proprietary Indices Offer Deep Dive into Market Risk and Affordability
To provide clients with a granular understanding of the US housing industry, John Burns Real Estate Consulting relies on several proprietary indices. These tools are critical for investors and developers to assess risk and opportunity across the 100+ markets JBRC covers.
Key JBRC Indices include:
- Burns Housing Cycle Risk Index™: Measures the risk of a market downturn.
- Burns Home Value Index™: Tracks home price movements with greater accuracy than public indices.
- Burns Affordability Index™: Gauges the accessibility of housing for the average consumer.
- Burns Under/Overpriced Market Index™: Identifies markets where prices may be unsustainably high or undervalued.
JBREC’s Consulting Services and Topical Authority
John Burns Real Estate Consulting provides independent research and consulting services to a diverse clientele, including home builders, land developers, financial service firms, private equity firms, and building product manufacturers.
The firm’s topical authority is built on its ability to integrate macroeconomic trends, consumer behavior, and granular, regional data. Their services cover crucial segments of the residential market, ensuring clients make sound strategic decisions.
- Home Building and Land Development: Advising on community strategy, product design, and land acquisition.
- Build-to-Rent (BTR): Providing comprehensive analysis and strategy for the rapidly expanding BTR sector.
- Apartments and Multifamily: Offering revenue projections and strategy development for new and existing rental communities.
- Fix-and-Flip Market: Delivering quarterly updates and pricing insights for real estate investors focused on short-term gains.
The firm’s senior leadership team, including executives like Dean Wehrli, Devyn Bachman, Ken Perlman, and Lesley Deutch, further solidifies its position as a thought leader illuminating the complexities of the housing industry.
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